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Some Confidence Is Lacking In Health Catalyst, Inc. (NASDAQ:HCAT) As Shares Slide 25%

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 27 05:52

Health Catalyst, Inc. (NASDAQ:HCAT) shares have retraced a considerable 25% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 45% in that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, there still wouldn't be many who think Health Catalyst's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.5x is worth a mention when the median P/S in the United States' Healthcare Services industry is similar at about 1.8x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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NasdaqGS:HCAT Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 27th 2024

How Health Catalyst Has Been Performing

Recent times haven't been great for Health Catalyst as its revenue has been rising slower than most other companies. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S ratio from falling. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Keen to find out how analysts think Health Catalyst's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is Health Catalyst's Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Health Catalyst's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 7.1%. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 57% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 11% per year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 14% per annum growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this information, we find it interesting that Health Catalyst is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What Does Health Catalyst's P/S Mean For Investors?

With its share price dropping off a cliff, the P/S for Health Catalyst looks to be in line with the rest of the Healthcare Services industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Given that Health Catalyst's revenue growth projections are relatively subdued in comparison to the wider industry, it comes as a surprise to see it trading at its current P/S ratio. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Circumstances like this present a risk to current and prospective investors who may see share prices fall if the low revenue growth impacts the sentiment.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for Health Catalyst that we have uncovered.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Health Catalyst, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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