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Despite Delivering Investors Losses of 7.5% Over the Past 5 Years, CITIC (HKG:267) Has Been Growing Its Earnings

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 26 19:31

While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the CITIC Limited (HKG:267) share price has gained 11% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. After all, the share price is down 32% in that time, significantly under-performing the market.

The recent uptick of 4.5% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

While the share price declined over five years, CITIC actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 11% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.

We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. It's not immediately clear to us why the stock price is down but further research might provide some answers.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SEHK:267 Earnings and Revenue Growth February 27th 2024

If you are thinking of buying or selling CITIC stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, CITIC's TSR for the last 5 years was -7.5%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Although it hurts that CITIC returned a loss of 1.2% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 7.5%. What is more upsetting is the 1.5% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. This sort of share price action isn't particularly encouraging, but at least the losses are slowing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand CITIC better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that CITIC is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

But note: CITIC may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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