Today is shaping up negative for Fox Factory Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:FOXF) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
Following the downgrade, the current consensus from Fox Factory Holding's eight analysts is for revenues of US$1.6b in 2024 which - if met - would reflect a reasonable 6.9% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to plunge 39% to US$1.76 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.15 in 2024. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a pretty serious decline to earnings per share numbers as well.
The consensus price target fell 32% to US$59.75, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Fox Factory Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Fox Factory Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 6.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Fox Factory Holding.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Fox Factory Holding's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Fox Factory Holding.
A high debt burden combined with a downgrade of this magnitude always gives us some reason for concern, especially if these forecasts are just the first sign of a business downturn. See why we're concerned about Fox Factory Holding's balance sheet by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the Fox Factory Holding Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.