Shareholders might have noticed that Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (NYSE:BNL) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to US$14.79 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$443m, although statutory earnings per share came in 17% below what the analysts expected, at US$0.83 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
NYSE:BNL Earnings and Revenue Growth February 25th 2024
Following last week's earnings report, Broadstone Net Lease's five analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$434.5m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 15% to US$0.70 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$443.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.74 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$19.17 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Broadstone Net Lease analyst has a price target of US$22.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$18.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.9% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.8% per year. It's pretty clear that Broadstone Net Lease's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Broadstone Net Lease. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Broadstone Net Lease analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Broadstone Net Lease (2 are a bit concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.
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