Last week, you might have seen that XPEL, Inc. (NASDAQ:XPEL) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.8% to US$52.98 in the past week. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit US$396m. Statutory earnings fell 2.3% short of analyst forecasts, reaching US$1.91 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from XPEL's two analysts is for revenues of US$441.1m in 2024. This reflects a meaningful 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 11% to US$2.13. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$434.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.33 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
The average price target fell 31% to US$67.00, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that XPEL's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 28% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like XPEL is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for XPEL. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of XPEL's future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have analyst estimates for XPEL going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also view our analysis of XPEL's balance sheet, and whether we think XPEL is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.