Investing in stocks inevitably means buying into some companies that perform poorly. But the long term shareholders of Mango Excellent Media Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300413) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. So they might be feeling emotional about the 64% share price collapse, in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 27%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 11% in the last 90 days. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 11% in the same period.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Mango Excellent Media actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 0.4% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
After considering the numbers, we'd posit that the the market had higher expectations of EPS growth, three years back. However, taking a look at other business metrics might shed a bit more light on the share price action.
With a rather small yield of just 0.5% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. Arguably the revenue decline of 3.3% per year has people thinking Mango Excellent Media is shrinking. After all, if revenue keeps shrinking, it may be difficult to find earnings growth in the future.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Mango Excellent Media is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 20% in the twelve months, Mango Excellent Media shareholders did even worse, losing 27% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 0.1%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Before forming an opinion on Mango Excellent Media you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.
Of course Mango Excellent Media may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.