Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd. (HKG:2777) Shares Fly 31% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 21 17:11

Those holding Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd. (HKG:2777) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 31% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 46% over that time.

Even after such a large jump in price, Guangzhou R&F Properties' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 0.6x and even P/S above 3x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

SEHK:2777 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 21st 2024

How Guangzhou R&F Properties Has Been Performing

With revenue that's retreating more than the industry's average of late, Guangzhou R&F Properties has been very sluggish. Perhaps the market isn't expecting future revenue performance to improve, which has kept the P/S suppressed. You'd much rather the company improve its revenue performance if you still believe in the business. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping the revenue slide doesn't get any worse if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Guangzhou R&F Properties will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Guangzhou R&F Properties' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 38%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 62% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with revenue decreasing 12% as estimated by the dual analysts watching the company. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 7.7%.

With this information, we are not surprised that Guangzhou R&F Properties is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.

What We Can Learn From Guangzhou R&F Properties' P/S?

Guangzhou R&F Properties' stock price has surged recently, but its but its P/S still remains modest. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of Guangzhou R&F Properties' analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue is contributing to its low P/S. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Guangzhou R&F Properties you should be aware of, and 2 of them can't be ignored.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Guangzhou R&F Properties, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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