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Earnings Growth of 2.5% Over 3 Years Hasn't Been Enough to Translate Into Positive Returns for Zhejiang Supor (SZSE:002032) Shareholders

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 19 20:35

No-one enjoys it when they lose money on a stock. But it's hard to avoid some disappointing investments when the overall market is down. The Zhejiang Supor Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002032) is down 30% over three years, but the total shareholder return is -20% once you include the dividend. That's better than the market which declined 28% over the last three years. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 6.7%.

Since Zhejiang Supor has shed CN¥3.1b from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Zhejiang Supor actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 7.5% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. Zhejiang Supor has maintained its top line over three years, so we doubt that has shareholders worried. So it might be worth looking at how revenue growth over time, in greater detail.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SZSE:002032 Earnings and Revenue Growth February 20th 2024

Zhejiang Supor is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for Zhejiang Supor in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Zhejiang Supor, it has a TSR of -20% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Zhejiang Supor shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 8.4% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 1.9% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Zhejiang Supor , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

We will like Zhejiang Supor better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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