Despite an already strong run, Sino Gas Holdings Group Limited (HKG:1759) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 41% in the last thirty days. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 13% in the last twelve months.
Since its price has surged higher, Sino Gas Holdings Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 13.6x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 8x and even P/E's below 4x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
The recent earnings growth at Sino Gas Holdings Group would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. It might be that many expect the reasonable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
Sino Gas Holdings Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 2.7% gain to the company's bottom line. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen an unpleasant 35% overall drop in EPS. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 24% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that Sino Gas Holdings Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Bottom Line On Sino Gas Holdings Group's P/E
The strong share price surge has got Sino Gas Holdings Group's P/E rushing to great heights as well. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Sino Gas Holdings Group revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
It is also worth noting that we have found 5 warning signs for Sino Gas Holdings Group (3 are significant!) that you need to take into consideration.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Sino Gas Holdings Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.