Guohai Securities released a research report stating that maintaining the Meituan-W (03690) “purchase” rating, it has long been optimistic about the company's core barriers in the field of instant delivery and high resilience in the local lifestyle business. Considering the short-term growth rate of takeout AOV and short-term pressure on the on-site wine travel sector, the company adjusted its 2023-2025 revenue to 2,757/3, 287/3, and 83.6 billion yuan respectively based on prudential principles. Net profit to mother was 127/177/31.8 billion yuan, respectively, and non-GAAP net profit to mother was 220/275/42.6 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding diluted EPS is $2.0/2.8/4.9; the target price is HK$110.
The forecast estimates that Meituan will achieve total revenue of 72.6 billion yuan (YoY +21%); core local commercial revenue of 54.4 billion yuan (YoY +25%) in 2023Q4, including estimated revenue of 38.1 billion yuan (YoY +18%), operating margin of 11.6%; flash sales business estimated revenue of 4.8 billion yuan (YoY +19%), operating margin of -8%; and estimated revenue of 11.3 billion yuan (YoY +10%) for the new business.