Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ:GPRE) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. The numbers were fairly weak, with revenue of US$3.3b missing analyst predictions by 2.9%, and (statutory) losses of US$1.59 per share being slightly larger than what the analysts had expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the ten analysts covering Green Plains, is for revenues of US$2.80b in 2024. This implies a definite 15% reduction in Green Plains' revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Green Plains forecast to report a statutory profit of US$1.04 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.08b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.29 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$34.65, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Green Plains' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Green Plains analyst has a price target of US$55.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$24.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 15% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 9.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 0.9% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Green Plains is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Green Plains. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Green Plains going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Green Plains you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.