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Shareholders in Illumina (NASDAQ:ILMN) Have Lost 73%, as Stock Drops 3.1% This Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 12 07:23

Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 41% in the last quarter. But only the myopic could ignore the astounding decline over three years. The share price has sunk like a leaky ship, down 73% in that time. So it's about time shareholders saw some gains. Only time will tell if the company can sustain the turnaround.

After losing 3.1% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

Illumina isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last three years, Illumina saw its revenue grow by 7.8% per year, compound. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. Nonetheless, it's fair to say the rapidly declining share price (down 20%, compound, over three years) suggests the market is very disappointed with this level of growth. We generally don't try to 'catch the falling knife'. Of course, revenue growth is nice but generally speaking the lower the profits, the riskier the business - and this business isn't making steady profits.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

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NasdaqGS:ILMN Earnings and Revenue Growth February 12th 2024

Illumina is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Illumina had a tough year, with a total loss of 36%, against a market gain of about 23%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 9% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Before spending more time on Illumina it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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