It's been a good week for Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:BIOX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest second-quarter results, and the shares gained 7.2% to US$13.57. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.0016 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$140m and were slightly better than forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Bioceres Crop Solutions' five analysts is for revenues of US$495.9m in 2024. This reflects a decent 9.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 29% to US$0.45. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$471.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.64 in 2024. While next year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a large cut to EPS expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view of these results.
The analysts also cut Bioceres Crop Solutions' price target 5.7% to US$20.00, implying that lower forecast earnings are expected to have a more negative impact than can be offset by the increase in revenue. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Bioceres Crop Solutions, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$25.00 and the most bearish at US$15.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Bioceres Crop Solutions' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 19% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 26% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.2% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Bioceres Crop Solutions is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Bioceres Crop Solutions. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bioceres Crop Solutions going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Bioceres Crop Solutions you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.