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ComNav Technology Ltd. (SHSE:688592) Shares May Have Slumped 35% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 9 17:08

To the annoyance of some shareholders, ComNav Technology Ltd. (SHSE:688592) shares are down a considerable 35% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. To make matters worse, the recent drop has wiped out a year's worth of gains with the share price now back where it started a year ago.

Although its price has dipped substantially, given around half the companies in China's Communications industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 3.4x, you may still consider ComNav Technology as a stock to avoid entirely with its 6x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:688592 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 9th 2024

How Has ComNav Technology Performed Recently?

Revenue has risen firmly for ComNav Technology recently, which is pleasing to see. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for ComNav Technology, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as ComNav Technology's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 12%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 33% overall rise in revenue, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 46% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it concerning that ComNav Technology is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What Does ComNav Technology's P/S Mean For Investors?

Even after such a strong price drop, ComNav Technology's P/S still exceeds the industry median significantly. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of ComNav Technology revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. When we see slower than industry revenue growth but an elevated P/S, there's considerable risk of the share price declining, sending the P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these the share price as being reasonable.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 3 warning signs for ComNav Technology that you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on ComNav Technology, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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