The Zhitong Finance App learned that Galaxy Securities released a research report saying that judging from the 2024 Spring Festival box office pre-sale performance, the bank believes that the film industry's recovery trend remains unchanged in 2024, and that there is still room for continued recovery and growth in the film market. It is recommended to focus on Optical Media (300251.SZ) and Bona Pictures (001330.SZ); the business covers the entire film production, distribution, and broadcasting industry chain while benefiting from the restoration of imported film supply Chinese movies ( 600977.SH); Online ticketing services have benefited from market recovery, such as Maoyan Entertainment (01896), which has outstanding video production and promotion capabilities.

Incident: On the afternoon of February 1, the pre-sale box office for new 2024 Spring Festival movies broke 100 million, the fastest in the past three years. According to data from the Lighthouse Pro Edition, as of 14:00 on February 5, the cumulative pre-sale box office for the first day of the new year had reached 217 million. Among them, “Speeding Life 2”, “Hot and Hot”, and “Article 20” each ranked in the top three pre-sale box office lists, all exceeding 50 million yuan.

Galaxy Securities's views are as follows:

Comedies predominate, and the head effect is obvious:

As of February 5, a total of 9 movies have been scheduled for the Spring Festival program. Of these, 8 films have been officially announced to be screened on the first day of the new year (February 10). The film genres cover comedy, animation, romance, suspense, etc. Among them, comedy films dominate, which is in line with the happy viewing atmosphere of the family during the schedule. In terms of the main creative team, “Flying Fast” director Han Han, “Hot and Hot” director Jia Ling, and “Article 20” director Zhang Yimou performed brilliantly in the past few years. The pre-sale box office of these three films together accounted for 75% of the market, and the head effect was obvious.

The two associations held a symposium on the distribution and screening of Spring Festival films:

Faced with the dispute that some films required the lowest schedule for the first two days of the Spring Festival program, on the afternoon of January 30, the China Film Distribution and Screening Association issued an article stating that in order to maintain a level playing field in the market and promote the high-quality development of Chinese films, in the afternoon of the same day, representatives of the China Film Producers Association, the China Film Distribution and Screening Association, and eight investment producers of Spring Festival films held a symposium on the distribution and screening of Spring Festival films. At the symposium, it was proposed to respect the market, respect the audience, establish an efficient, standardized and fair competition market environment, and do a good job of arranging the Spring Festival schedule scientifically and rationally.

Mini-skits have been added to the Spring Festival program to promote the professionalization and quality development of mini-skits:

The 16 short dramas recently announced by the State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television will also join the box office “Big Battle” during the Spring Festival, including “Jin Yue An Sheng” and “Let's Transcend! “Ah Juan”, “Watching Fu Cat”, “Tianya Little Nyonya”, etc., these repertoire have outstanding cultural and tourist elements, which can better meet the audience's demand for high-level audiovisual content and increase the supply of high-quality audiovisual content. According to the “2023-2024 China Short Drama Market Research Report” published by Ai Media Consulting, the domestic short drama market size in 2023 is 37.39 billion yuan, and is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2027. The short drama market is ushering in new development space.

The film market continues to pick up, and the feedback from the Spring Festival program is quite positive:

According to Lighthouse Pro, the total box office revenue of the 2023 Spring Festival program was 6.766 billion yuan, accounting for 12.31% of the total box office for the whole year, and the market recovered strongly. The bank believes that the 2024 Spring Festival program is expected to continue the recovery trend in the film market, and that comedy films have a wide audience, high attendance rate, and good movie viewing results, which better satisfies the demand of the Spring Festival audience. The audience's feedback on the Spring Festival program is positive, and their desire to watch movies is gradually increasing, and they are optimistic about the performance of the Spring Festival program.

Risk warning: the risk of increased market competition, the risk of stricter policy regulations, the risk of film content quality and box office falling short of expectations, the risk that demand for watching movies falls short of expectations, etc.