You can invest in an index fund if you want to make sure your returns approximately match the overall market. By comparison, an individual stock is unlikely to match market returns - and could well fall short. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Avicopter Plc (SHSE:600038) shareholders, since the share price is down 36% in the last three years, less than the market decline of around 30%. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 22% lower in that time. But it's up 8.2% in the last week.
On a more encouraging note the company has added CN¥1.6b to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the three years that the share price fell, Avicopter's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 2.2% each year. The share price decline of 14% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Avicopter has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Avicopter shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 21% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 24%. Given the total loss of 3% per year over five years, it seems returns have deteriorated in the last twelve months. Whilst Baron Rothschild does tell the investor "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", buyers would need to examine the data carefully to be comfortable that the business itself is sound. Before forming an opinion on Avicopter you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.
We will like Avicopter better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.