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There's Reason For Concern Over The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:THG) Price

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 6 09:25

It's not a stretch to say that The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:THG) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.8x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" for companies in the Insurance industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 1x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:THG Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 6th 2024

How Has Hanover Insurance Group Performed Recently?

Recent times haven't been great for Hanover Insurance Group as its revenue has been rising slower than most other companies. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S ratio from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Hanover Insurance Group will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Hanover Insurance Group's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 9.6%. The latest three year period has also seen a 24% overall rise in revenue, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been respectable for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 3.6% as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 5.8% growth, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

In light of this, it's curious that Hanover Insurance Group's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What Does Hanover Insurance Group's P/S Mean For Investors?

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Given that Hanover Insurance Group's revenue growth projections are relatively subdued in comparison to the wider industry, it comes as a surprise to see it trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Hanover Insurance Group, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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