According to the research report released by Pioneer Securities, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the “Notice on Strengthening the Link between Green Electricity Certificates and Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Policies to Vigorously Promote Non-fossil Energy Consumption”.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Pioneer Securities released a research report saying that the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the “Notice on Strengthening the Link between Green Electricity Certificates and Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Policies to Vigorously Promote Non-Fossil Energy Consumption” to expand the scope of green certificate transactions, encourage regions to implement renewable energy consumption commitment systems for new projects, speed up the establishment of mandatory renewable energy consumption mechanisms for energy-intensive enterprises, and reasonably increase the consumption ratio requirements. After implementation of the “Notice”, it is expected that the consumption of green electricity will be greatly promoted and the consumption of new energy electricity will increase. Good for green power operators.
The bank maintains an “optimistic” investment rating for the utility sector. We recommend companies such as Huaneng International (600011.SH), China Nuclear Power (601985.SH), Changjiang Electric Power (600900.SH), Huaneng Hydropower (), Three Gorges Energy (USD), and Solar Energy (000591.SZ). 600025.SH 600905.SH
The views of Capital Securities are as follows:
Strengthen the link between green electricity certificates and energy saving and carbon reduction policies, and vigorously promote non-fossil energy consumption. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments jointly issued the “Notice on Strengthening the Link between Green Power Certificates and Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Policies to Vigorously Promote Non-Fossil Energy Consumption”, which states that it is necessary to strengthen the link between green certificates and energy consumption dual control policies, implement non-fossil energy not included in total energy consumption and intensity control, promote the inclusion of green certificate transactions in the accounting of energy saving evaluation and assessment indicators; consolidate the green license issuance and transaction basis, expand the scope of green certificate transactions, and encourage regions to implement renewable energy consumption commitment systems for new projects, speed up the establishment of mandatory renewable energy consumption mechanisms for high-energy enterprises, and reasonably increase the consumption ratio requirements.
The electricity consumption of the whole society is expected to increase by 6% in 2024, and the overall electricity supply and demand situation in the country is in tight balance during peak summer and peak winter. Recently, the China Telecommunication Union released the “2023-2024 National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report”. The report predicts that by the end of 2024, the country's installed power generation capacity is expected to reach 3.25 billion kilowatts, an increase of about 12% over the previous year, and the installed capacity of new energy power generation will once again exceed 200 million kilowatts; the electricity consumption of the whole society is expected to increase by about 6% in 2024, and the overall balance of the national electricity supply and demand situation is expected to be tight during peak summer and peak winter.
Silicon prices continued to rise slightly. In terms of the price of the photovoltaic industry chain, the price of silicon materials continued to rise slightly this week. The average transaction price of N-type materials was 71,900 yuan/ton, up 1.41% from week to week; the average transaction price of re-feed materials was 61,800 yuan/ton, up 1.48% from week to week. In terms of silicon wafers, the average transaction price for M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers (182 mm/150 μm) remained flat at 2.00 yuan/sheet; the average transaction price of N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers (182 mm/130 μm) was 2.02 yuan/sheet, and the average transaction price for G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210 mm/150 μm) remained flat. On the demand side, the N/P price spread for batteries remained stable, and demand for components showed signs of improvement.
The price of thermal coal has declined slightly. The price of thermal coal fell slightly this week. As of February 2, the price of Q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 916 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from week to week, down 21.37% year on year.
The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the “Notice on Strengthening the Link between Green Power Certificates and Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Policies to Vigorously Promote Non-Fossil Energy Consumption”, expanding the scope of green certificate transactions, encouraging regions to implement renewable energy consumption commitment systems for new projects, speed up the establishment of mandatory renewable energy consumption mechanisms for energy-intensive enterprises, and reasonably increase the consumption ratio requirements. After implementation of the “Notice”, it is expected that the consumption of green electricity will be greatly promoted and the consumption of new energy electricity will increase. Good for green power operators. We maintain an “optimistic” investment rating for the utilities sector. We recommend companies such as Huaneng International, China Nuclear Power, Changjiang Electric Power, Huaneng Hydropower, Three Gorges Energy, and Solar Energy.
Risk warning: Implementation of carbon neutrality policies falls short of expectations; market-based electricity reforms fall short of expectations; coal prices fall short of expectations; construction and consumption of new energy sources fall short of expectations, etc.