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Pulling Back 8.3% This Week, Stella International Holdings' HKG:1836) One-year Decline in Earnings May Be Coming Into Investors Focus

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 5 18:47

If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But you can significantly boost your returns by picking above-average stocks. To wit, the Stella International Holdings Limited (HKG:1836) share price is 24% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market decline of around 23% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. However, the stock hasn't done so well in the longer term, with the stock only up 2.6% in three years.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 8.3%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the last year, Stella International Holdings actually saw its earnings per share drop 5.0%.

The mild decline in EPS may be a result of the fact that the company is more focused on other aspects of the business, right now. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We haven't seen Stella International Holdings increase dividend payments yet, so the yield probably hasn't helped drive the share higher. Revenue actually dropped 9.1% over last year. It's fair to say we're a little surprised to see the share price up, and that makes us cautious.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

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SEHK:1836 Earnings and Revenue Growth February 5th 2024

Take a more thorough look at Stella International Holdings' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Stella International Holdings, it has a TSR of 38% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Stella International Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 38% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 6%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Stella International Holdings , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

We will like Stella International Holdings better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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