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The Five-year Shareholder Returns and Company Earnings Persist Lower as China Merchants Port Holdings (HKG:144) Stock Falls a Further 5.3% in Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 5 18:05

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited (HKG:144) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 41% over a half decade. Even worse, it's down 10% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. However, we note the price may have been impacted by the broader market, which is down 5.0% in the same time period.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for China Merchants Port Holdings isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the five years over which the share price declined, China Merchants Port Holdings' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 9.6% each year. In this case, the EPS change is really very close to the share price drop of 10% a year. This implies that the market has had a fairly steady view of the stock. Rather, the share price change has reflected changes in earnings per share.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SEHK:144 Earnings Per Share Growth February 5th 2024

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free interactive report on China Merchants Port Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for China Merchants Port Holdings the TSR over the last 5 years was -16%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While it's never nice to take a loss, China Merchants Port Holdings shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 6.1% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 19%. Given the total loss of 3% per year over five years, it seems returns have deteriorated in the last twelve months. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand China Merchants Port Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for China Merchants Port Holdings you should be aware of.

We will like China Merchants Port Holdings better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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