Schneider National, Inc. (NYSE:SNDR) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.0% to US$24.19 in the week after its latest full-year results. Revenues of US$5.5b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$1.34, missing estimates by 4.2%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Schneider National's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$5.67b in 2024. This reflects a modest 3.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 18% to US$1.11 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$5.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.44 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$26.69, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Schneider National at US$35.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$24.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Schneider National's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 6.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Schneider National.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Schneider National. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Schneider National analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Schneider National that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.