Graham Holdings Company's (NYSE:GHC) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.4x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 17x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
Earnings have risen firmly for Graham Holdings recently, which is pleasing to see. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this respectable earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Is There Enough Growth For Graham Holdings?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Graham Holdings would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 12% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, lamentably EPS has fallen 13% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 10% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we find it concerning that Graham Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that Graham Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Graham Holdings that you should be aware of.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Graham Holdings. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.