GeoPark Limited's (NYSE:GPRK) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 3.4x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 18x and even P/E's above 33x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.
With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, GeoPark has been very sluggish. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
How Is GeoPark's Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like GeoPark's to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 32%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 26% during the coming year according to the five analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 10% growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it odd that GeoPark is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It looks like most investors are not convinced at all that the company can achieve future growth expectations.
The Bottom Line On GeoPark's P/E
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that GeoPark currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is higher than the wider market. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the positive outlook. It appears many are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for GeoPark that you need to take into consideration.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on GeoPark, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.