TDG Holding Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600330) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 27% share price drop in the last month. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 53% loss during that time.
Even after such a large drop in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about TDG Holding's P/E ratio of 25.9x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in China is also close to 28x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for TDG Holding as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. It might be that many expect the dismal earnings performance to revert back to market averages soon, which has kept the P/E from falling. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like TDG Holding's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 66%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 33% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the dual analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 66% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 41% growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's curious that TDG Holding's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It may be that most investors aren't convinced the company can achieve future growth expectations.
The Key Takeaway
With its share price falling into a hole, the P/E for TDG Holding looks quite average now. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of TDG Holding's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a strong earnings outlook with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 4 warning signs for TDG Holding that you should be aware of.
You might be able to find a better investment than TDG Holding. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.