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Moog's (NYSE:MOG.A) Profits Appear To Have Quality Issues

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 2 06:05

Moog Inc.'s (NYSE:MOG.A) robust recent earnings didn't do much to move the stock. We think this is due to investors looking beyond the statutory profits and being concerned with what they see.

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NYSE:MOG.A Earnings and Revenue History February 2nd 2024

One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. As it happens, Moog issued 6.3% more new shares over the last year. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. Check out Moog's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

A Look At The Impact Of Moog's Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Moog was losing money three years ago. On the bright side, in the last twelve months it grew profit by 12%. On the other hand, earnings per share are only up 12% over the same period. Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns.

Changes in the share price do tend to reflect changes in earnings per share, in the long run. So it will certainly be a positive for shareholders if Moog can grow EPS persistently. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

On top of the dilution, we should also consider the US$36m impact of unusual items in the last year, which had the effect of suppressing profit. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If Moog doesn't see those unusual expenses repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to increase over the coming year.

Our Take On Moog's Profit Performance

To sum it all up, Moog took a hit from unusual items which pushed its profit down; without that, it would have made more money. But unfortunately the dilution means that shareholders now own a smaller proportion of the company (assuming they maintained the same number of shares). That will weigh on earnings per share, even if it is not reflected in net income. Given the contrasting considerations, we don't have a strong view as to whether Moog's profits are an apt reflection of its underlying potential for profit. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For example - Moog has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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