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Lumen Technologies: A Strategic Hold Awaiting 2024 Guidance and Key Indicators
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Lumen Technologies: A Strategic Hold Awaiting 2024 Guidance and Key Indicators

In a report released today, Gregory Williams from TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating on Lumen Technologies (LUMNResearch Report), with a price target of $5.00.

Geoff Meacham has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors surrounding the anticipated financial outcomes and strategic moves of Lumen Technologies. The forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023 indicates results that align with expectations, yet there is particular interest in the guidance that will be set for 2024. Meacham anticipates an EBITDA guidance range between $4.0 to $4.2 billion, capital expenditures of $2.5 to $2.7 billion, and free cash flow including tax refund to be in the vicinity of $400 to $600 million. The bondholder agreement provides a strategic benefit, granting the company time and capital that could contribute to future stabilization.

The decision to maintain a Hold rating is also influenced by the anticipation of key indicators that could signal the stabilization of the business by 2025, as well as the outcome of a potential sale of the incumbent local exchange carrier (ILEC) operations. Williams is looking for concrete signs of improvement and strategic execution that could bolster the company’s standing before considering a more favorable rating. The initial 2024 guidance also presents a possibility for a lower-than-expected EBITDA, which introduces a degree of caution in the rating. Williams’ stance reflects a wait-and-see approach, emphasizing the importance of tangible proof points and successful strategic initiatives moving forward.

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Lumen Technologies (LUMN) Company Description:

Lumen Technologies is a technology and communications company focused on providing business and mass markets customers. It offers public and private cloud solutions, Colocation and Data Center Services, IT solutions, Unified Communications and Collaboration, Content Delivery, and Managed Security Services. Lumen operates through three brands, including its flagship brand Lumen targeting the enterprise and wholesale markets. Further, it provides fiber-based services to residential and small business customers via the Quantum Fiber brand. Moreover, it focuses on the mass market through its CenturyLink brand.

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