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SafBon Water Service (Holding) Inc.,Shanghai (SZSE:300262) Shares May Have Slumped 26% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 1 17:04

The SafBon Water Service (Holding) Inc.,Shanghai (SZSE:300262) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 26%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 14% share price drop.

Although its price has dipped substantially, you could still be forgiven for thinking SafBon Water Service (Holding)Shanghai is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 5.9x, considering almost half the companies in China's Water Utilities industry have P/S ratios below 2.2x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SZSE:300262 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 1st 2024

How SafBon Water Service (Holding)Shanghai Has Been Performing

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, SafBon Water Service (Holding)Shanghai has been doing very well. The P/S ratio is probably high because investors think this strong revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for SafBon Water Service (Holding)Shanghai, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, SafBon Water Service (Holding)Shanghai would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an explosive gain to the company's top line. Still, revenue has fallen 45% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 9.8% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that SafBon Water Service (Holding)Shanghai's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

SafBon Water Service (Holding)Shanghai's shares may have suffered, but its P/S remains high. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that SafBon Water Service (Holding)Shanghai currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for SafBon Water Service (Holding)Shanghai you should know about.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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