The Zhitong Finance App learned that Minsheng Securities released a research report saying that at present, Spring Festival movies are being scheduled one after another, most of which are sequels from well-known IPs and directors, which is expected to boost users' demand for watching movies. Looking back at 2023, both the summer and New Year's Day programs have reached record highs, and the recovery trend is strong. Looking ahead to 2024, the Spring Festival program is expected to have a good start, driving the recovery of the movie market throughout the year. It is recommended to focus on three main lines: 1) On the content side, pay attention to companies with popular film reserves, such as Light Media (300251.SZ) (24 years of reserves for “Nacha: The Devil Waves the Sea”, “Xiao Qian”, etc.). 2) On the cinema side, operations have improved marginally. It is recommended to pay attention to Wanda Films (002739.SZ), etc. 3) Online channels. Ticketing revenue is recovering steadily as the total box office revenue of the film industry grows. It is recommended to focus on online ticketing leader Maoyan Entertainment (01896), etc.

▍ The main views of Minsheng Securities are as follows:

Spring Festival movies continue to be scheduled, with a focus on comedy.

As of January 30, 2024, 9 Spring Festival movies have been scheduled, namely “Flying Fast & Furious”, “Article 20”, “Bears Go: Reversing Time and Space”, “Let's Shake the Sun”, “Mr. Red Carpet”, “Under the Sky”, “The Lower Realm of Heaven”, “Wong Ki: The Cat Falling from Heaven”, and “Breaking the Battle”.

Judging from the type of product, the featured films are mainly comedies. The main creators include famous comedians such as Shen Teng (Speeding Life 2), Jia Ling (Hot and Hot), Ma Li (Article 20), and Fan Wei (Section 20).

Judging from the popularity of the product, as of January 30, 2024, “Speeding Life 2,” “Hot and Hot,” “Article 20,” and “Bears Are Incurring: Reversing Time and Space”, ranked in the top rankings, with 675,000 people, 496,000 people, 413,000 people, and 613,000 people, respectively.

Judging from the product style, most of the top movies this time are sequels from well-known IPs or directors. “Flying at Life 1” was screened on February 5, 2019, with a total box office of 1,728 billion yuan. “Hello, Lee Hwan-young”, the predecessor of “Hot and Hot, Hot and Hot”, went live on February 12, 2021, with a total box office of 5.413 billion yuan. The original IP series of “Bears Hound: Reversing Time and Space” has been around for a long time. “Bears Hound: Accompany Me”, which was released on January 22, 2023, grossed 1,495 billion yuan at the box office. “Article 20” is a new film directed by Zhang Yimou. The previous film “Man Jiang Hong” was screened on January 22, 2023, with a total box office of 4,544 billion yuan.

The Spring Festival program accounts for a relatively high proportion of the box office.

The effect of the schedule has been quite obvious in recent years, and the Spring Festival box office accounts for a high proportion of the annual box office. According to the Beijing News public account, citing data from the National Film Administration and Lighthouse Professional Edition, the 2021-2023 Spring Festival program contributed 7.843 billion yuan, 6.040 billion yuan, and 6.766 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 17%, 20%, and 12% of the total box office for that year, respectively. The box office during the period was mainly contributed by 1-2 blockbuster films. The 2021 Spring Festival box office grossed 7.843 billion yuan, and the top 2 films “Chinatown Detective 3” and “Hello Lee Huan-ying” accounted for 45% and 35% of the box office respectively. (The cumulative box office was 4,523 billion yuan and 5.413 billion yuan, respectively).

The 2022 Spring Festival box office grossed 6.04 billion yuan, with the top 2 films “The Watergate Bridge at Changjin Lake” and “This Killer Not Too Calm” accounting for 42% and 23% of the box office respectively. (The cumulative box office was 4,067 billion yuan and 2,627 billion yuan, respectively). The 2023 Spring Festival box office grossed 6.766 billion yuan, and the top 2 films “Man Jiang Hong” and “Wandering Earth 2” accounted for 39% and 32% of the box office respectively. (The cumulative box office was 4,544 billion yuan and 4,029 billion yuan, respectively).

Risk warning:

Regulatory risk, risk of movie viewing demand falling short of expectations, risk of film performance falling short of expectations.