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Vibrant Group Limited (SGX:BIP) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 25% Price Plummet

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 31 19:38

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Vibrant Group Limited (SGX:BIP) share price has dived 25% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 50% share price decline.

Even after such a large drop in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Vibrant Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Logistics industry in Singapore, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.5x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Vibrant Group

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SGX:BIP Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 1st 2024

How Vibrant Group Has Been Performing

For example, consider that Vibrant Group's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Vibrant Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Vibrant Group's Revenue Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Vibrant Group would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 29% decrease to the company's top line. At least revenue has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 9.5% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Vibrant Group's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Vibrant Group's P/S

Vibrant Group's plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our look at Vibrant Group revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Vibrant Group (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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