With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 4x Qifu Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:QFIN) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 18x and even P/E's higher than 33x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.
Qifu Technology has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the dismal earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
View our latest analysis for Qifu Technology
How Is Qifu Technology's Growth Trending?
Qifu Technology's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 12%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 36% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the eleven analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 17% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 10% growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it odd that Qifu Technology is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.
What We Can Learn From Qifu Technology's P/E?
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Qifu Technology currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is higher than the wider market. When we see a strong earnings outlook with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing significant pressure on the P/E ratio. At least price risks look to be very low, but investors seem to think future earnings could see a lot of volatility.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Qifu Technology you should know about.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Qifu Technology, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.