The Zhitong Finance App learned that the longest Spring Festival program in history is coming soon. Up to now, a total of 9 movies have been officially announced to be scheduled for the 2024 Spring Festival. Based on predictions from third-party media ahead of schedule, it is estimated that “Hot and Hot,” “Article 20,” and “Flying for Life 2” will all be close to 2 billion yuan. Guotai Junan released a research report saying that since the 2024 Spring Festival film actually ran for 8 days, 2 days longer than before, under optimistic and neutral predictions, the total box office is expected to reach record highs, and relatively pessimistic predictions will approach previous highs. Related subjects: Maoyan Entertainment (01896), Alibaba Pictures (01060), IMAX CHINA (01970), Reading Group (00772).

According to data from Lighthouse Pro, up to now, 9 movies have been scheduled for the 2024 Spring Festival: “Hot and Hot,” “Bears Go Back in Time and Space,” “Article 20,” “Mr. Red Carpet,” “Let's Rock the Sun Together,” “Heavenly Lord of Heaven,” and “Breaking the Battle.” With the exception of “Breaking the Battle” scheduled for February 16 (the 7th day of the new year), the remaining 8 films will all be screened on February 10 (the first day of the new year).

Judging from the film genre, the Spring Festival movies are mainly comedy. Apart from “The Eight Precepts: Under the Sky”, which is a mythical cartoon and “Breaking the Battle” is a suspense action film, the remaining 7 movies are all labeled “comedy,” and the atmosphere of “Happy New Year” is filled with a sense of “joy and joy for the New Year.”

Judging from the number of people who want to watch it, the number of people who want to watch “Flying Speed 2,” which was produced by Chinese films and invested by Hengdian Film and Television, reached 519,000, and is currently at the top of the Spring Festival program. “Article 20,” directed by Zhang Yimou, and “Hot and Hot Hot”, controlled by Xinli Media, a subsidiary of Reading Wen Group, ranked second and third with 290,000 and 383,000 viewers respectively. These three new films have already locked in the first tier of the Spring Festival film list.

According to Lighthouse Pro, pre-sales of new Spring Festival movies began on January 31. As of 10:00 on January 31, the number of pre-sales on the first day of the new year exceeded 10,000. Currently, “Article 20,” “Hot and Hot,” and “Fast Life 2” are temporarily in the top three pre-sale box office lists for the Spring Festival.

Regarding the film lineup that has already been officially announced, some voices in the industry believe that the characteristics of the upcoming Spring Festival program are a “lack of blockbuster movies.” Since the Spring Festival program released quite a few hit movies such as “Wandering Earth” and “The Watergate Bridge at Changjin Lake” in the previous few years, it is difficult for a single Spring Festival film to set a new record this year.

Yin Tengyu, a senior analyst at the Cat's Eye Research Institute, pointed out that the big market on the first day of the Spring Festival program was definitely mainly supported by the top three movies, but the subsequent market performance still depends on the word-of-mouth performance of all the films after they are screened. Many of the previous Spring Festival box office winners were not “blockbusters” before they were screened, and even some films failed to reach the top three on the first day of their release, yet they were able to fight back to the Spring Festival top spot with their outstanding reputation.

Yin Tengyu said that the number of valid days for the Spring Festival holiday this year (1st to 8th) is 2 days longer than in previous years (1st to 6th), so the schedule can accumulate 2 days longer in the holiday box office, so there is a greater chance of surpassing last year's Spring Festival box office, but the final performance still depends on the quality and word-of-mouth performance of the films released this year.

Liu Chunsheng, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, also said that with the recovery of the film market, audience demand may be further released. There is no doubt that the overall box office surpassed the same period during the pandemic, and may even reach a new high. After all, the 2023 summer program has already set a record for the same period. As one of the important dates in the Chinese film market, the Spring Festival program has a high level of attention and box office appeal. However, the box office performance of the Spring Festival program is also affected by various factors such as film quality, market competition, and ticket prices. In the end, which movie can set off the Spring Festival program also depends on the audience's word of mouth.

Guotai Junan released a research report saying that among the currently scheduled films, with the exception of the animated film “The Bear Rises: Reversing Time and Space”, which had a differentiated competitive advantage, “Flying Life 2,” “Hot and Hot,” and “Article 20,” which were predicted to have a box office of 2 billion yuan before screening, all run the same line. The main distributors are Maogan Entertainment, Ticketing, and Light Media, respectively. Considering that the scheduled movies are the same actual controllers, the scheduled movies may compete for the top two. Since the 2024 Spring Festival film actually ran for 8 days, 2 days longer than before, under optimistic and neutral predictions, the total box office is expected to reach record highs, and some relatively pessimistic predictions will be close to previous highs.

Related concept stocks:

Maogan Entertainment (01896): The 2024 Spring Festival “Article 20” box office forecast is 1,88—2.1 billion yuan. The film is mainly controlled by Light Media and directed by Zhang Yimou. Light Media and Maogan Entertainment are the same actual controllers.

Alibaba Pictures (01060): On January 24, the professional edition of Alibaba Pictures digital intelligence platform Lighthouse held a media conference on the theme of “Using Good Style, Digital Intelligence to Protect”. At the conference, Lighthouse Pro officially announced the highlights of the upgraded version of Lighthouse AI, including box office prediction analysis, real-time pre-sale reports, and real-time crown maps. To protect the “longest Spring Festival in history” with digital intelligence, the newly upgraded Lighthouse AI will be open for free during the Spring Festival.

IMAX CHINA (01970): The global IMAX cinema network is an important distribution platform for Hollywood movies. IMAX cinemas use proprietary IMAX, IMAX3D, and IMAXDMR technology to provide the world's top movie experience.

Reading Group (00772): “Hot and Hot”, which is controlled by Xinli Media, a subsidiary of Reading Group, ranked second and third with 290,000 and 383,000 people who wanted to watch, respectively. These three new films have already locked in the first tier of the Spring Festival film list.