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Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By MarineMax, Inc.'s (NYSE:HZO) 27% Share Price Plunge

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 30 13:53

MarineMax, Inc. (NYSE:HZO) shares have retraced a considerable 27% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. The recent drop has obliterated the annual return, with the share price now down 4.0% over that longer period.

Even after such a large drop in price, MarineMax's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 18x and even P/E's above 33x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.

Recent times haven't been advantageous for MarineMax as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

View our latest analysis for MarineMax

pe-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:HZO Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry January 30th 2024
Keen to find out how analysts think MarineMax's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Is There Any Growth For MarineMax?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like MarineMax's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 51%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 1.3% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 18% during the coming year according to the nine analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 10%, which paints a poor picture.

With this information, we are not surprised that MarineMax is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Key Takeaway

Shares in MarineMax have plummeted and its P/E is now low enough to touch the ground. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that MarineMax maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for MarineMax (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you're unsure about the strength of MarineMax's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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