By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. For example, the COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. (HKG:517) share price is up 42% in the last three years, clearly besting the market decline of around 35% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 40% in the last year , including dividends .
On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.
Check out our latest analysis for COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong)
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During three years of share price growth, COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong) achieved compound earnings per share growth of 20% per year. The average annual share price increase of 12% is actually lower than the EPS growth. So it seems investors have become more cautious about the company, over time. We'd venture the lowish P/E ratio of 9.52 also reflects the negative sentiment around the stock.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong) the TSR over the last 3 years was 92%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong) has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 40% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 13% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong) that you should be aware of.
But note: COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong) may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.