Heritage Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:HFWA) just released its latest annual report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$240m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 14%, coming in at just US$1.75 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for Heritage Financial
After the latest results, the six analysts covering Heritage Financial are now predicting revenues of US$247.5m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 3.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$1.77, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$252.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.77 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$22.20, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Heritage Financial at US$26.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$20.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Heritage Financial is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 3.3% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 4.1% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 5.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that Heritage Financial is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$22.20, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Heritage Financial. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Heritage Financial going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Heritage Financial that you need to take into consideration.
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