Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ:CHDN), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NASDAQGS. While good news for shareholders, the company has traded much higher in the past year. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company's outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let's examine Churchill Downs's valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there's still a bargain opportunity.
Check out our latest analysis for Churchill Downs
What Is Churchill Downs Worth?
According to our price multiple model, where we compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average, the stock currently looks expensive. In this instance, we've used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock's cash flows. We find that Churchill Downs's ratio of 25.05x is above its peer average of 19.93x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Hospitality industry. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Churchill Downs's share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
Can we expect growth from Churchill Downs?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Churchill Downs' earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 36%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? CHDN's optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above industry price multiples. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe CHDN should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping an eye on CHDN for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for CHDN, which means it's worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
If you want to dive deeper into Churchill Downs, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. Our analysis shows 2 warning signs for Churchill Downs (1 is concerning!) and we strongly recommend you look at them before investing.
If you are no longer interested in Churchill Downs, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.