With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 31x Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:GO) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Recent times have been pleasing for Grocery Outlet Holding as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. The P/E is probably high because investors think the company will continue to navigate the broader market headwinds better than most. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
View our latest analysis for Grocery Outlet Holding
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Grocery Outlet Holding's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 43% last year. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 20% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the twelve analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 9.0% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 12% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's alarming that Grocery Outlet Holding's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
What We Can Learn From Grocery Outlet Holding's P/E?
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Grocery Outlet Holding's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Grocery Outlet Holding that we have uncovered.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.