REF Holdings Limited (HKG:1631) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 28% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 13% in the last twelve months.
Although its price has surged higher, there still wouldn't be many who think REF Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7.7x is worth a mention when the median P/E in Hong Kong is similar at about 9x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
REF Holdings has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing earnings at a reasonable pace. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to only match most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
View our latest analysis for REF Holdings
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like REF Holdings' is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 7.4% gain to the company's bottom line. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen an unpleasant 55% overall drop in EPS. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 22% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
With this information, we find it concerning that REF Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.
The Final Word
REF Holdings appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump getting its P/E back in line with most other companies. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of REF Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 4 warning signs for REF Holdings (2 are concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.