If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. Having said that, from a first glance at Atmos Energy (NYSE:ATO) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Atmos Energy:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.051 = US$1.1b ÷ (US$23b - US$1.4b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).
Thus, Atmos Energy has an ROCE of 5.1%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Gas Utilities industry average of 6.5%.
See our latest analysis for Atmos Energy
In the above chart we have measured Atmos Energy's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
We weren't thrilled with the trend because Atmos Energy's ROCE has reduced by 30% over the last five years, while the business employed 113% more capital. However, some of the increase in capital employed could be attributed to the recent capital raising that's been completed prior to their latest reporting period, so keep that in mind when looking at the ROCE decrease. Atmos Energy probably hasn't received a full year of earnings yet from the new funds it raised, so these figures should be taken with a grain of salt.
On a related note, Atmos Energy has decreased its current liabilities to 6.0% of total assets. That could partly explain why the ROCE has dropped. Effectively this means their suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of the business, which reduces some elements of risk. Some would claim this reduces the business' efficiency at generating ROCE since it is now funding more of the operations with its own money.
The Key Takeaway
To conclude, we've found that Atmos Energy is reinvesting in the business, but returns have been falling. And with the stock having returned a mere 32% in the last five years to shareholders, you could argue that they're aware of these lackluster trends. Therefore, if you're looking for a multi-bagger, we'd propose looking at other options.
On a separate note, we've found 2 warning signs for Atmos Energy you'll probably want to know about.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.