When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 16x, you may consider AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 33.6x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times have been pleasing for AAON as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. The P/E is probably high because investors think the company will continue to navigate the broader market headwinds better than most. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
View our latest analysis for AAON
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like AAON's to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 146%. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 111% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the four analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 10% over the next year. That's shaping up to be similar to the 10% growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's curious that AAON's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.
What We Can Learn From AAON's P/E?
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Our examination of AAON's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for AAON that you should be aware of.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.