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Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) Pulls Back 3.6% This Week, but Still Delivers Shareholders Splendid 34% CAGR Over 3 Years

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 16 12:58

The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But if you buy shares in a really great company, you can more than double your money. For example, the Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE:ARCO) share price has soared 131% in the last three years. That sort of return is as solid as granite. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 20% gain in the last three months. But this could be related to the strong market, which is up 9.4% in the last three months.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 3.6%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Arcos Dorados Holdings

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During three years of share price growth, Arcos Dorados Holdings moved from a loss to profitability. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:ARCO Earnings Per Share Growth January 16th 2024

We know that Arcos Dorados Holdings has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Arcos Dorados Holdings' TSR for the last 3 years was 141%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Arcos Dorados Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 39% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 8% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Arcos Dorados Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Arcos Dorados Holdings you should know about.

Of course Arcos Dorados Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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