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Simmons First National (NASDAQ:SFNC) Sheds US$79m, Company Earnings and Investor Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for Past Five Years

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 15 07:03

Simmons First National Corporation (NASDAQ:SFNC) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 13% in the last quarter. But if you look at the last five years the returns have not been good. After all, the share price is down 29% in that time, significantly under-performing the market.

After losing 3.3% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

Check out our latest analysis for Simmons First National

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the five years over which the share price declined, Simmons First National's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 1.0% each year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 7% per year, over the period. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past. The low P/E ratio of 9.98 further reflects this reticence.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:SFNC Earnings Per Share Growth January 15th 2024

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Simmons First National the TSR over the last 5 years was -17%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Simmons First National had a tough year, with a total loss of 15% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 20%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 3% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Simmons First National better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Simmons First National that you should be aware of before investing here.

Simmons First National is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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