The Zhitong Finance App learned that Debon Securities released a research report saying that the total box office of the 2024 New Year's Day program was 1,533 billion, setting a record high for the New Year's Day program in Chinese film history, with a total number of shows of 1.417 million, setting a new high for the total number of New Year's Day shows in Chinese film history. Looking ahead to the Spring Festival in '24, on the one hand, the restoration of movie-watching habits is expected to continue, maintaining the basic market of movie-watching groups; on the other hand, the popularity of publicity has gradually begun to spread. In terms of numbers, 6 movies have been scheduled for the Spring Festival this year; the past five years have averaged 7-8 movies. Due to the late schedule for this year's overall schedule, due to the film schedule situation, the bank is expected to schedule future films, which is basically the same level as in the past. It is recommended to focus on the targets with a rich list of subsequent films, as well as leading theatrical theaters.
Related targets: A shares, Optical Media (300251.SZ), Hengdian Film and Television (603103.SH), Shanghai Film (601595.SH), Wanda Film (002739.SZ), etc.; Hong Kong stocks: Maoyan Entertainment (01896), Reading Group (00772), China Confucius (00136), etc.
Debon Securities's views are as follows:
In the past, the Spring Festival box office volume gradually increased, reaching a maximum of 7.842 billion dollars in 2021.
After 2018, the box office rose from around 3-3.5 billion to around 55-6.5 billion, and the number of moviegoers was around 130 million; the Spring Festival vacancy in 2020 was affected by the epidemic, and in 2021 it was driven up by demand, to a record high of 7.842 billion, and the number of movie viewers was about 160 million. In terms of the number of movies released, before the pandemic, 7-8 Spring Festival movies were screened, and 10 in 2021, including 3 blockbuster movies worth more than 1 billion. The importance of the Spring Festival festival is gradually increasing, and its share of the box office continues to increase throughout the year. The 2016-17 Spring Festival box office accounted for about 7% of the annual box office, then gradually increased. After 2018, it remained above 10%, and reached a high of about 22% in 2022. In terms of subject matter, the main themes of the first 2018 movies were mainly comedy. After 2019, the themes were richer, including comedy, suspense, main themes, etc.; at the same time, IP series films performed well. Movies such as the Tang Detective series, the Wandering Earth series, and the Bear Infestation series became important box office contributions.
Supply side: quantity is expected to remain flat, and quality may be surpassed.
Judging from the current scheduling situation, the quantity is expected to be the same as in the past, and the quality is expected to surpass. In terms of numbers, 6 movies have been scheduled for the Spring Festival this year; the past five years have averaged 7-8 movies. Due to the late schedule for this year's overall schedule, due to the film schedule situation, the bank is expected to schedule future films, which is basically the same level as in the past. In terms of quality, it is expected that there will be 4 films that have grossed more than 1 billion dollars, surpassing previous years. In line with the predictions of third party media from Cat Eye, the Spring Festival program is expected to feature 2 billion or more blockbusters, “Hot and Hot” and “Article 20,” respectively. The themes are all comedies; the 2 blockbusters of over 1 billion dollars, “Life at Speed 2” and “When a Bear Rises: Reversing Time and Space”, are all IP sequels. In terms of subject matter, it covers movies such as romance, comedy, animation, etc., with comedy as the main focus. As can be seen from the reissue of past Spring Festival programs, the leading films set the trend in the box office. The top 3 grossing movies in the schedule usually contribute more than 75% of the box office, and the concentration is relatively high. Therefore, the performance of the top movie basically determines the direction of the schedule.
Demand side: Movie-watching habits have gradually recovered, and publicity has further promoted movie-watching demand.
The box office broke records during the New Year's Day schedule, and I saw that there was sufficient demand for watching movies. The total box office for the 2024 New Year's Day program was 1,533 million, setting a record high for the New Year's Day program in Chinese film history, with a total number of shows of 1.417 million, setting a new record for the total number of New Year's Day shows in Chinese film history. A single-day box office of $732 million was reported on December 31, setting a new New Year's Eve box office record in Chinese film history. The bank believes that the driving factors for the New Year's Day record break mainly stem from: 1) Under the impetus of various programs such as the Spring Festival program, summer program, and Lunar New Year program in '23, movie viewing habits have gradually resumed, especially for the schedule. 2) Promote a combo punch to further boost demand for movie-watching. For example, “One Twinkle, One Twinkle, One Shining Star”, which came out of the ring at the “Snow Field,” garnered a strong box office win of 608 million yuan and won the New Year's Day box office title. Looking ahead to the Spring Festival in '24, on the one hand, the restoration of movie-watching habits is expected to continue, maintaining the basic market of movie-watching groups; on the other hand, the popularity of publicity has gradually begun to spread. For example, “Hot and Hot” is frequently popular due to promotional terms such as “#贾玲减了100斤.”
Risk warning: competition in the industry intensifies; box office falls short of expectations; film withdrawal, etc.