Analyst Edward White of H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating on Valneva (VALN – Research Report), with a price target of $26.00.
Edward White has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors relating to Valneva’s developmental progress and market potential. Valneva’s advancement in pediatric trials for their chikungunya vaccine, Ixchiq, signifies progress towards a broader label that could include younger age groups following initial approvals. The vaccine has already received accelerated approval from the FDA for adults, and the ongoing trials in the Dominican Republic and Honduras are expected to support future regulatory submissions. With positive Phase 3 data in adolescents and ongoing reviews by various health agencies, Valneva is positioning itself in a market projected to be worth over $500 million annually by 2032. Moreover, the anticipation of a U.S. commercial launch early this year supports the optimistic outlook for the vaccine’s market penetration.
White’s $26 price target reflects an analysis based on revenue forecasts, probability-adjusted royalty estimates, and estimated net cash. The recommendation considers the net present value of projected revenues through 2028, with a 100% probability of success (POS) factored in for Ixchiq and a 75% POS for VLA15, Valneva’s vaccine candidate for Lyme disease. These projections are complemented by a price/sales multiple that aligns with industry peers and a discount rate that balances the developmental risks associated with the company’s pipeline. White anticipates significant revenue growth for Ixchiq by 2024, reaching a substantial figure by 2028, alongside a robust projection for VLA15, further justifying the bullish stance on Valneva’s stock.
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Valneva (VALN) Company Description:
Valneva SE is a vaccine company focused on developing life-saving vaccines. Its portfolio includes two vaccines for travellers; one for the prevention of Japanese encephalitis (IXIARO) and the second (DUKORAL) for the prevention of cholera and diarrhoea. The segments of the group are Commercialized vaccines which relate to marketed vaccines, the group’s vaccines IXIARO/JESPECT, DUKORAL, and third-party products; Vaccine candidates which relate to research and development programs to generate new approvable products to generate future cash flows from product sales through partnering with pharmaceutical companies; and Technologies and services which relates to services and inventions at a commercialization stage. The group is based in France and operates internationally.
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