Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Investors in Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:VAC) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 37%. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 23%. Even if you look out three years, the returns are still disappointing, with the share price down37% in that time. In contrast, the stock price has popped 9.4% in the last thirty days.
While the last year has been tough for Marriott Vacations Worldwide shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Marriott Vacations Worldwide
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Unfortunately Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported an EPS drop of 6.0% for the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 37% share price fall. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, a year ago. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 10.24.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
A Different Perspective
Marriott Vacations Worldwide shareholders are down 36% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 23%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 4% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Marriott Vacations Worldwide is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
Marriott Vacations Worldwide is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.