With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.8x National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE:NFG) may be sending bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 17x and even P/E's higher than 32x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.
National Fuel Gas has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the dismal earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for National Fuel Gas
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as National Fuel Gas' is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 16% decrease to the company's bottom line. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 12% each year during the coming three years according to the four analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be similar to the 12% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it odd that National Fuel Gas is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It may be that most investors are not convinced the company can achieve future growth expectations.
The Bottom Line On National Fuel Gas' P/E
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that National Fuel Gas currently trades on a lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is in line with the wider market. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide more support to the share price.
Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with National Fuel Gas.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than National Fuel Gas. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.