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Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) Advances 6.4% This Week, Taking Three-year Gains to 687%

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 8 07:10

We think that it's fair to say that the possibility of finding fantastic multi-year winners is what motivates many investors. Mistakes are inevitable, but a single top stock pick can cover any losses, and so much more. One such superstar is Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU), which saw its share price soar 679% in three years. And in the last month, the share price has gained 9.4%. Anyone who held for that rewarding ride would probably be keen to talk about it.

Since it's been a strong week for Peabody Energy shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for Peabody Energy

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During three years of share price growth, Peabody Energy moved from a loss to profitability. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:BTU Earnings Per Share Growth January 8th 2024

We know that Peabody Energy has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? This free interactive report on Peabody Energy's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Peabody Energy's TSR for the last 3 years was 687%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Peabody Energy shareholders are down 5.5% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 22%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 2% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Peabody Energy better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Peabody Energy is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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