MTR Corporation Limited's (HKG:66) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.8x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for MTR as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. It might be that many expect the dismal earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be very nervous about the viability of the share price.
View our latest analysis for MTR
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like MTR's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 20%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 51% in total over the last three years. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the eleven analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 25% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 15% per year, which is noticeably less attractive.
With this information, we can see why MTR is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
The Bottom Line On MTR's P/E
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
As we suspected, our examination of MTR's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for MTR that you need to take into consideration.
You might be able to find a better investment than MTR. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.