When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 17x, you may consider Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR) as an attractive investment with its 8.6x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Murphy Oil as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping the earnings slide doesn't get any worse if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
See our latest analysis for Murphy Oil
How Is Murphy Oil's Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the market for P/E ratios like Murphy Oil's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 21% decrease to the company's bottom line. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 3.1% per annum during the coming three years according to the eleven analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 12% each year, which paints a poor picture.
In light of this, it's understandable that Murphy Oil's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
What We Can Learn From Murphy Oil's P/E?
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
As we suspected, our examination of Murphy Oil's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Murphy Oil (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Murphy Oil. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.