When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 17x, you may consider Aflac Incorporated (NYSE:AFL) as an attractive investment with its 11.1x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Aflac as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping the earnings slide doesn't get any worse if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
View our latest analysis for Aflac
Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as Aflac's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 12%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 17% in total. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 0.8% per year as estimated by the ten analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 12% growth per year, that's a disappointing outcome.
In light of this, it's understandable that Aflac's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Bottom Line On Aflac's P/E
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
As we suspected, our examination of Aflac's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Aflac (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.
You might be able to find a better investment than Aflac. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.