The Zhitong Finance App learned that on January 3, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association released the monthly report on the import and export of steel products for November 2023. In November, China imported 614,000 tons of steel, a year-on-month decrease of 54,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 138,000 tons; the average import unit price was 1628.2 US dollars/ton, up 7.3% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year. In January-November, imported steel was 6.98 million tons, down 29.2% year on year; the average import unit price was 1667.1 US dollars/ton, up 3.5% year on year; imported billet was 2,731 thousand tons, down 56.0% year on year.

In November, China exported 8.05 million tons of steel, up 66,000 tons from month to month, up 2.415 million tons; the average export unit price was 810.9 US dollars/ton, up 2.4% from month to month, down 38.4% year on year. In January-November, exports of steel were 82.658 million tons, up 35.6% year on year; the average export unit price was 947.4 US dollars/ton, down 32.2% year on year; exports of billet were 3.016 million tons, up 2.056 million tons; net crude steel exports were 79.602 million tons, up 30.99 million tons year on year, an increase of 63.8%.

Figure 1 Monthly situation of China's steel imports and exports

Export situation of steel products

In November, China's steel exports rebounded to more than 8 million tons month-on-month. Exports of products such as wire, welded steel pipes, and hot-rolled thin and wide steel strips increased significantly, while exports to Vietnam and Saudi Arabia increased significantly. The details are as follows:

1. Situation by variety

In November, China exported 5.458 million tons of sheets, a year-on-month decrease of 0.1%, accounting for 68.2% of total exports. Among the varieties with a large export volume, the export volume of coated sheets, hot-rolled thin and wide steel strips all exceeded 1 million tons. Among them, the monthly export volume of hot-rolled thin and wide steel strips reached the highest value since June 2022. The biggest increase in exports was for wire, welded steel pipes, and hot-rolled thin and wide steel strips, which increased by 25.5%, 17.5%, and 11.3%, respectively. The biggest decline in exports was for large steel and bars, which all fell by more than 50,000 tons from month to month. In November, China exported 357,000 tons of stainless steel, up 6.2% month-on-month, accounting for 4.5% of total exports; exported 767,000 tons of special steel, a decrease of 2.1% month-on-month, accounting for 9.6% of total exports.

Table 1. Export status of steel by variety in November 2023

Table 2 Stainless steel and special steel exports in November 2023

2. Subregional context

In November, China exported 2.449 million tons of steel to ASEAN, up 2.2% month-on-month, accounting for 30.6% of total exports. The increase mainly came from Vietnam, which increased 12.5% month-on-month to 1.006 million tons. The biggest increase in exports was from Saudi Arabia, which increased 43.6% month-on-month to 380,000 tons. Exports to India fell 38.3% month-on-month, returning to normal levels from a record high last month.

Figure 2 Main export flow of Chinese steel in November 2023

3. Primary commodity exports

In November, China exported 282,000 tons of primary steel products (including steel billets, pig iron, direct reduced iron, and recycled steel raw materials), of which exports of steel billets increased 2.4% month-on-month to 275,000 tons.

Figure 3 Steel billet exports in the same month

Import situation of steel products

In November, China's steel imports fell month-on-month and remained at a low level. The reduction in imports is mainly due to medium plates and cold rolled thin and wide steel strips, while imports from Japan and South Korea have all declined. The details are as follows:

1. Situation by variety

In November, China imported 511,000 tons of sheets, a year-on-month decrease of 10.6%, accounting for 83.2% of total imports. Among the varieties with a large import volume, the import volume of coated sheets, cold-rolled sheets and medium thick and wide steel strips all exceeded 90,000 tons, accounting for a total of 50.5% of the total imports. The reduction in imports came entirely from sheets, of which medium plate and cold-rolled thin and wide steel strip decreased by 29.0% and 20.1%, respectively.

In November, China imported 133,000 tons of stainless steel, a year-on-month decrease of 53.3%, ending four consecutive month-on-month increases, accounting for 21.6% of total imports; the average import price was 3282.5 US dollars/ton, up 38.0% from month to month. In November, China imported 224,000 tons of special steel, a year-on-month decrease of 15.1%, accounting for 36.5% of total imports.

Table 3 Import situation of steel by type in November 2023

Table 4 Stainless steel and special steel imports in November 2023

2. Subregional context

In November, all of China's import reductions came from Japan and South Korea, which decreased by 8.2% and 17.6%, respectively. Imports from ASEAN amounted to 93,000 tons, up 7.2% month-on-month. Among them, Indonesia's imports increased 8.9% month-on-month to 84,000 tons.

Figure 4 Main sources of China's steel imports in November 2023

3. Import situation of primary products

In November, China imported 37,000 tons of primary steel products (including steel billets, pig iron, direct reduced iron, and recycled steel raw materials), a decrease of 38.9% month-on-month; of these, imports of steel billets decreased by 49.0% to 254,000 tons month-on-month.

Table 5 Import situation of major primary steel products in November 2023

Later outlook

In November, global steel prices generally rose. Domestic steel prices changed from decline to rise. At the same time, due to the rise in the RMB exchange rate, China's steel export prices rose, but the global market is still at a low level, and export price advantages still exist. It is estimated that in 2023, China's steel exports will exceed 90 million tons. Historically, it is only lower than the export volume in 2014-2016, and the import volume is about 7.6 million tons. It should be noted that due to the expansion of export scale, 5 countries around the world have initiated 6 trade remedy investigations against Chinese steel products in 2023. At the end of the year, Mexico announced the imposition of nearly 80% import tariffs on some Chinese steel products. Steel companies need to be wary of the risk of increased trade frictions. Furthermore, on December 28, 2023, the Taxation Commission issued a notice to adjust the five tax rules for steel products, laying a good foundation for promoting precise measures for the import and export of steel products.